Russian economy could shrink by 5.8 pct in 2015 in “risk scenario”

13 Mar 2015 | Author: | No comments yet »

Ruble Pares Weekly Loss on Russia Rates Reduction as Bonds Drop.

Russian President Vladimir Putin listens to the Supreme Court Chairman Vyacheslav Lebedev, right, in the Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow, Russia, Friday, March 13, 2015.(Bloomberg) — The ruble gained, trimming its first weekly decline in more than a month, and Russian bonds retreated as the central bank lowered interest rates less than some traders predicted. The currency gained 0.4 percent to 60.9630 per dollar by 3:27 p.m. in Moscow and bond yields jumped after central bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina lowered borrowing costs by 100 basis points to 14 percent.

While the move was in line with the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 32 analysts, more than half the currency, rates and bond traders polled by the Tradition brokerage predicted cuts of at least 150 basis points. “Stability in the ruble could be a sign that some investors were even expecting a larger cut and they are now buying rubles,” Per Hammarlund, the chief emerging-markets strategist at SEB AB in Stockholm, said by e-mail. While the ruble retreated 1 percent this week, it has shown resilience to expectations of deeper cuts, gaining 4 percent against the dollar in the past month, the best performance among 24 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The bank predicts Russia’s economy will shrink by between 3.5 percent and 4 percent this year, while the Economic Development Ministry forecasts a 3 percent drop. They’re receiving a lot less in dollar income via the sale of oil and other commodities and food prices at home in Russia are biting,” said Darren Sinden, market commentator, Admiral Capital Markets The rouble strengthened slightly after the decision. Over the past six weeks, the ruble has regained some of its lost value against foreign currencies, including the strong dollar, on the back of a recovery in world oil prices, Russia’s key export and revenue generator.

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